While some people believe that bitcoin (BTC) could become a global reserve asset, others are skeptical. Rather than relying on human subjective valuations and biases, we conducted an experiment to let artificial intelligence (AI) determine whether bitcoin could become a global reserve currency. We asked six popular AI chatbots the same question: “Will bitcoin become a reserve currency and when?”
AI Experiment Assesses the Likelihood of Bitcoin as a Reserve Currency
Bitcoin.com News conducted an experiment on June 9, 2023, using some of the most popular AI chatbots currently available. AI has been a trending topic in 2023, with platforms like Chatgpt, Midjourney, Bard, and Claude gaining popularity. Users of this software have noticed varying outcomes when it comes to text and art content. In our test, we simply asked Openai’s Chatgpt 3.5 and 4, Google’s Bard, Anthropic’s Claude Instant and 4, and Bing AI’s creative mode the same question in the form of a prompt.
The prompt was:
This experiment aims to gauge the likelihood of bitcoin becoming a global reserve asset. As an expert in the field of bitcoin and crypto assets, you will assess the probability of this occurrence and provide an explanation if it were to happen. While it is plausible to argue that it may never come to pass, if you do acknowledge its potential, kindly state the anticipated year of its realization and succinctly summarize the reasons and mechanisms behind its success. Keep your answer short and under a paragraph in length. Will bitcoin become a reserve currency and when?
Chatgpt 3.5 answer: It is challenging to provide a definitive answer as to whether bitcoin will become a global reserve asset and when. While bitcoin has gained significant attention and adoption in recent years, it still faces numerous challenges and uncertainties. It is important to monitor the ongoing developments and evolution of the cryptocurrency ecosystem to assess the potential for bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies to achieve reserve currency status.
Bard answer: There are a number of factors that could contribute to bitcoin’s success, including increased adoption by central banks and financial institutions, increased stability in the price of bitcoin, and improvements in the technology behind bitcoin. If bitcoin is able to overcome these challenges, it could become a global reserve asset within the next decade. However, it is also possible that it will never become a reserve asset, or that it will take much longer to achieve this goal.
Claude 4 answer: Based on my analysis of bitcoin’s properties and the current global financial system, I would assess the probability of bitcoin becoming a reserve currency as low to moderate, potentially within the next 10-15 years.
Claude Instant answer:
Chatgpt 4 answer: While bitcoin has the potential to become a global reserve asset, there are significant challenges and uncertainties that could prevent this from happening. If it were to occur, it might take several years or even decades for this to materialize.
Bing AI answer: The likelihood of bitcoin becoming a reserve currency is uncertain and depends on various factors, such as:
- The adoption and acceptance of bitcoin by mainstream users, investors, and institutions.
- The innovation and improvement of bitcoin’s technology, scalability, and usability.
- The regulation and governance of bitcoin’s legal status, taxation, and compliance.
- The competition and cooperation of bitcoin with other cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies.
Each answer had similarities, but there were also notable differences. Only Bard and Claude 4 provided a potential probability and possible timeline. During the study, Chatgpt 3.5 noted that its information was based on data available up until September 2021. OpenAI’s Chatgpt 4 also warned that “it cannot predict the future with certainty.” Bard provided reasons why bitcoin would not become a global reserve currency, citing “government regulation,” “security risks,” and “lack of trust.”
Chatgpt 4 also provided a second paragraph, despite being asked not to, explaining reasons why bitcoin may not become a global reserve currency. The chatbot cited “volatility,” “regulatory concerns,” “competition from other cryptocurrencies,” and “technological risks” as its reasons. It’s interesting to see how each AI program responded, but it’s important to understand that humans programmed this software with what they believe to be facts and opinions.
What are your thoughts on Bitcoin’s potential as a global reserve currency? Do you agree with the AI chatbots’ assessments, or do you have a different perspective? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
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